With the declaration of the candidate of of the All Progressive Congress (APC) Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the president-elect from the February 25th election, which both local and foreign observers have described as a sham, with reported voters intimidatiin, violence especially in Lagos state and with about seven days to the gubernatorial elections.
Book markers and political pundits are xtraying the chances of the incumbent governor Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu as he seeks a reelection for a second term, considering many factors at play.
The Opposition Role:
Many political analysts express their concern of the role the state of aquatic splendor has played in the political history of Nigeria which one cannot phantom if its been coincidental or controlled by super forces. Lagos state prior to 2015 has remained in the hands of opposition party with the government at the center, the South Western alliance forged by the current president -elect broke that and with more energy already exerted towards his emergence and the rift with some of his political allies, retaining Lagos in the ruling government at the center may be another hard nuts to crack.
ENDSARS:
The event of the October 29,2020 obviously is still fresh in the hearts of many Lagosians especially its teeming youths, who have found their voice and the need to determine their governance is another factor to be considered. The actions and maybe inactions of the state led government were far below expectations of the organizers of the peaceful protest that resulted to the massacred some of the innocent and defenceless protesters.
This factor is considered huge owing to the fact that continually memories of that event resonates in the social media spaces where these youths rule, also few of them have remained vocal and urging more to join the course of a new Lagos.
Formidable Candidates:
The Lagos politics may never have witnessed the unprecedented calibre of contestants like we are witnessing in the 2023 elections.
With the PDP featuring with a one time strong member and a great grassroot mobilizer in the person Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran aka Jandor. A former member of the ruling APC, who has not hidden that fact that he knows how the ruling party has perpetuated itself in Lagos state and willing to puncture it.
The new kid on the block, the Labour party has won the hearts of many coming from its performance in the presidential election and the feeling the whole world is feeling that it was robbed of victory in that election.
Featuring a true Lagosian in the person of Gbadebo Rhodes-Viour, an architect, young and very intelligent. Vivour has won hearts of many with the challenge now remaining his ability to turn these love to the desired votes.
Gbadebo enjoys the support of most protesters at the #Endsars due to his active roles and coordinations.
His family background and marriage puts him above the rest, a true Lagosian with traceable history backdated as far as 1860s, a grandson and in-law to the Igbo’s, having been born by an Igbo woman and his marriage to an Igbo woman has attracted much love from most Igbo’s in Lagos that sees him as theirs.
His manifesto to be the architect of a new Lagos is also electrifying.
Internal Wrangling:
Believe it or leave it, the APC Lagos chapter has not been the same since the conclusion of it primaries, though the internal wrangling may have been manage to an appreciable height, yet like the biblical saying; “a house that is divided cannot stand” resonated in the presidential and National Assembly elections and may be rearing its ugly head again at the state level elections.
INEC’s Flaws:
The breach of public trust from INEC on the conduct of the presidential is another factor that may work against Sanwo-Olu, as many believed that INEC colluded with his party to rob Nigerians, hence he might be the one to bear the brunts, due to voters apathy.
Sanwo-Olu through his campaigns and proxies have played their role by highlighting its administration’s achievements and making promises of taking g the state even higher.
In all these, his chances of winning may be just as big as that loosing.
